First quarter GDP will offer clues to where economy is headed under Trump
First quarter GDP will offer clues to where economy is headed under Trump
The GDP first estimate for the first quarter is out Friday. President Trump has promised growth of 4 or even 5 percent; his treasury secretary just promised major economic growth in defense of the president’s supply-side tax proposal. But what, realistically, is the first quarter GDP likely to show? Economists are puzzling over a contradiction between what they call “hard” and “soft” data. Reports on consumer and business spending, industrial output — the “hard data — have been pretty mediocre so far this year. But surveys of consumer and business confidence — “soft” data — have been really upbeat.
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